This year three of four traditional measures of economic activity stand at all-time highs, yet as a nation the United States seems to be uncertain about where it is, where it wants to go, and how to get there. Few of the crucial decisions that Hoadley suggested the U.S. needed to face in 1977 have been faced squarely, and very few have been resolved positively. These crucial decisions involve sustainable moderate growth, grass roots policy action, redistribution of income and wealth, widening cleavage between business and government, more private investment, rising protectionism, and more practical compromises. A fresh approach will ease confusion. We must recognize that the U.S. is in the early stages of another era of massive structural change that will last at least five years.

Hoadley's biography includes: Executive vice president and chief economist, Bank of America NT&SA, San Francisco, 1968-81; senior research fellow, Hoover Institution, 1981-2003; president, Commonwealth Club of California, 1987; author, "Looking Behind the Crystal Ball," 1988.