Erdman discusses the 1974 origins of his novel, "The Crash of '79." The book is based on three theses. First, the key issue of the United States would be its dependence on imported petroleum. In tandem with importing oil is the export of dollars, the second theme. Third is the random accident thesis, in which U.S. sales of arms to countries like Iran invite the start of a war. Erdman looks at the current status of these themes of oil dependence, the financial system's exposure to foreign funds, and the potential for a random accident.