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The U.S. Economy after the Elections
2003c87_a_0001906_r01.MP3
Collection StructureCommonwealth Club of California records > Sound recordings of club programs > The U.S. Economy after the Elections
Item Title The U.S. Economy after the Elections
Speaker Friedman, Milton (1912-2006)
Date CreatedOctober 31, 1980
Description

Dr. Friedman speaks on how the economy will be affected by the U.S. presidential election in 1980. Focusing on two parts, he speaks on the economy in the short run, 1981, and the long run, beyond 1981.

In 1981, the election will not have any impact according to Friedman. He believes the past two years of the "most erratic," "most undesirable" economic policy will still have create the conditions. He is very critical of the Federal Reserve, saying its predictions have not been accurate, and they do in fact have the power to fix its mistakes. He says the recent growth of the money supply has been the largest ever, and this is why the recession was interrupted, interest rates went up, and why inflation will continue to go up.

Friedman sees only two possibilities: the Fed can continue to expand the money supply; the economy will gain, but interest rates will shoot up and inflation will follow. However, he believes the Fed will stop the rate of monetary growth after the election, with recession following in 1981, which he says is not ideal, but more favorable for the long run. He notes it is easier to predict the actions of the Fed, but less so the effects of those actions.

In the long-term, he believes America has the ability to right the wrong of bad government. Friedman believes the election fits into the worldwide movement toward bigger government and restriction of human freedom to control their own lives. He combines the New Deal, the rise of socialism in Europe, and communist revolutions in Russia and China as part of same movement.

Saying the ideals of socialism are noble, but the results have been terrible, he says there is now a worldwide reaction to the growth of government, mentioning Thatcher in the United Kingdom, Sweden, Jamaica, and California propositions since 1973. He says this affects the communist countries as well, mentioning events in Poland, the disillusionment of Western intellectuals with the communist nations, and the opening of Chinese markets. He states President Carter has made a bow to this reaction, but will still increase the size of government. Meanwhile, he says a Reagan election does not mean a reversal of the increasing, saying Reagan has made a bow to the current system, but it allows a chance of a reversal. Ultimately, he notes while the president has tremendous influence, final power on economic matters reside in the Congress.

A supporter of Reagan, but wants his election more so for the message it would send about the public's opinions.

During the question and answer session, he touches on a few other issues. He says oil is not the cause of inflation, citing the examples of Germany and Japan--the high price of oil is an excuse, not a cause of American inflation. He believes government taxing should be indexed; bracket-creep has been the reason taxes are so high. He favors a constitutional amendment to limit spending, not balance the budget. He supports abolishing the minimum wage, calling it the most anti-black law on the books. He believes the Chrysler bail-out was a mistake and immoral--taxing those that make less to support Chrysler jobs.

Friedman's biography includes: Professor of economics, University of Chicago, 1946-77; recipient, Nobel Prize in economics, 1976; senior research fellow, Hoover Institution, 1977-2006.

Theme(s)
Language(s)
Country of Origin
Place RecordedSan Francisco, California, United States
DimensionsDuration: 44 minutes, 6 seconds
FormatSound Recording
Medium speeches (documents)
Hoover ID2003c87_a_0001906
Record Number2003C87.1009
NotesSee also Collected Works of Milton Friedman, object 2016C21.0386.
RightsUsed with permission of the Commonwealth Club of California.This copy is provided for educational and research purposes only. No publication, further reproduction, or reuse of copies, beyond fair use, may be made without the express written permission of the copyright owner.

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